Episode 731: The Up to One Swing for the Fences Edition
Date September 24, 2015 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about bullpen catchers, past playoff odds, a Nationals Park promotion, and more. Topics * Using bullpen catchers in games * Penalizing pickoff throws * Composing defensive metrics * Past playoff odds * Episode 661 follow-up: Revisiting early season trends * Categorizing failed pitches * Swing for your seats promotion Intro Hamilton (Original Broadway Cast Recording), "My Shot" Email Questions * Luis: "Any of the teams bullpen catchers is eligible to enter the game if all your other catchers are out of the game and/or injured. Said bullpen catcher would not be permitted to hit and his turn would result in an automatic out, so it's not quite like just having a 26th roster spot. The spirit of the rule change would be to remove the fear of your last catcher being injured. Obviously though teams could try to use this as efficiently as possible and get some competitive advantage out of it. So, imagine Commissioner Manfred announces today that this rule will go into effect starting with all games tomorrow. On the conservative side, I think starting catchers would be pulled out of blowouts more often and there'd be more catcher substitutions in extra inning games. What else can you imagine coming out of this?" * Matt: "What if pickoff throws from the pitcher counted as balls? It feels kind of intuitive, right? The pitcher stands on the mound and throws a baseball somewhere other than the strike zone, why not count it as a ball? I'm curious about the obvious questions. How often would pitchers even bother making pickoffs attempts? What would stolen base numbers look like? How would this impact walk rate, etc. and also what the other intended or unintended consequences of this change might be?" * Adam (Atlanta, GA): "On the September 16th episode you entertained the notion that Sam might be a better defender than even a very good major league defender who is stricken with the inability to throw at all, except as if the ball were a box of shoes. This got me to thinking about defensive metrics in general. Suppose defensive metrics perfectly captured every defensive contribution players could make, including avoiding high slides, properly locating the cutoff and outfielder's throw, etc. Among position players what fraction of the average player's overall defensive value would be attributable to a) his range b) his catching ability c) his throwing ability and d) other?" * Brian: "I was wondering if anyone had ever calculated what the White Sox playoff probability was when they completed the White Flag trade with the Giants in 1997. I remember that they were 3.5 games out at the time of the trade and were vilified for the trade. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf said something to the effect that if you think we can catch Cleveland, you're crazy. Is it possible to go back to seasons when playoff probabilities weren't being run on a daily basis or at all like they are today? If so I was wondering what the number showed. Were the Sox playoff bound or were the Sox right to make this trade? Can you go back to previous seasons to see what team's playoff probabilities were?" * Jay: "I just heard an analyst describe a pitch that was hit for a pitch for a home run as a sinkerball that didn't sink. I've heard this many times before but never a curveball that didn't curve, a slider that didn't slide, or while we're at it, a fastball that didn't fast. Is there anything to this beyond it being easy to know that certain pitchers are known for throwing sinkerballs so you can tell when a pitch stays up? Do pitchers ever throw a curveball that doesn't curve but it is still a curveball and would a knuckleball that didn't knuckle just be a fastball?" * Ben: "The Nationals will be offering free season tickets to fans who can hit a homer out of Nats park. Presumably there must exist many ex players in attendance, most of the time. However the Padres ran a similar promo and nobody hit one out. How many homers do you think the fans can hit? A retired Bonds perhaps if I sold him my season tickets?" Play Index * Sam uses the Play Index to check in on early season trends that he and Ben discussed in Episode 661. * Sacrifice bunts have increased from .23 to .25 per game, but is still at a record low. * Hit by pitches have decreased from a record high earlier in the season. * BABIP has increased to .299 this season. Notes * Ben and Sam heard estimates that bullpen catchers make a base salary of $60,000 per year in addition to the MLB per diem for travel. Bullpen catchers also receive a full playoff share for teams that win the World Series. * On The Baseball Gauge playoff odds have been generated for each team going back to 1871. * The White Sox had a 22.4% chance to make the playoffs when they made the White Flag trade in 1998. * In Episode 396 Ben and Sam discussed the 'Swing for Your Seats' promotion that the San Diego Padres had in 2014. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 731: The Up to One Swing for the Fences Edition * The Baseball Gauge Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes